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Over the past decade, Kazakhstan’s economic landscape has undergone a significant transformation, pivoting from a traditional reliance on natural resources toward a sophisticated service-digital model. The year 2026 has been officially declared the "Year of Digitalization and Artificial Intelligence," marking a new stage in the country's modernization. This shift is characterized by the deep integration of private financial ecosystems, such as Kaspi.kz and Halyk Bank, with state-led initiatives known as GovTech.
Currently, these banking super-apps offer a seamless blend of commercial and government services, including tax payments and eGov features, creating a unique business environment where public and private boundaries are increasingly blurred.
While this synergy has undoubtedly enhanced operational efficiency and accessibility for businesses, it introduces critical institutional challenges. This report argues that the growing dominance of a few large digital ecosystems, while driving modernization, presents a substantial risk of "market capture". Such a concentration of power may inadvertently stifle competition and create high entry barriers for new market participants.
Analyzing trends is therefore essential to understanding the long-term implications of this digital-centric growth strategy.
The first significant trend observed in early 2026 is the rapid integration of the Digital Tenge into the B2B (business-to-business) sector. On February 2, 2026, the Ministry of Finance initiated a pilot program focused on the automated administration of value-added tax (VAT) through digital currency. This system allows companies to use "marked" digital tenge for tax-related transactions, ensuring high transparency and reducing the risk of financial errors. A key benefit for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is the dramatic reduction in VAT refund times, which have decreased from 90 days to just 5 working days for exporters. By mid-
February, the platform had already facilitated over 1,000 transactions, totaling approximately 336.6 billion digital tenge. This development suggests that the national digital currency is moving beyond a theoretical concept to become a fundamental tool for improving corporate cash flow and operational efficiency.
The second trend involves the strategic expansion of Kazakhstani digital and financial solutions into the broader Central Asian market. By the first quarter of 2026, Kazakhstan reached a historic milestone with IT service exports totaling $1 billion. This expansion is not limited to private capital but includes the "export of institutions," as seen in the transfer of e-government infrastructure, such as the "Smart Bridge" project, to Tajikistan. In the private sector, Freedom Holding Corp has emerged as a regional leader, reporting revenues of $1.7 billion and a client base of 11 million by February 2026.
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1. Official site of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. On declaring the year of digitalization and artificial intelligence [Electronic resource]. – 2026. – URL: https://www.akorda.kz/ru/ob-obyavlenii-goda-cifrovizacii-i-iskusstvennogo-intellekta-601222 (date of access: 10.03.2026).
2. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Pilot project on the implementation of the Digital Tenge in B2B transactions [Electronic resource]. – 2026. – URL: https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/minfin/press/news/details/1148326 (date of access: 10.03.2026).
3. Inbusiness.kz. Kazakhstan's IT service exports reached a record as the country enters the era of digital technologies [Electronic resource]. – 2026. – URL: https://inbusiness.kz/ru/last/eksport-it-uslug-kazahstana-dostig-rekorda-a-strana-vstupaet-v-eru-cifrovyh-tehnologij (date of access: 10.03.2026).
4. Freedom Broker. Investment perspectives for 2026: Sustainable equilibrium [Electronic resource]. – 2026. – URL: https://fbroker.kz/researches/investicionnye-perspektivy-na-2026-god-335-ustoicivoe-ravnovesie-ru-2 (date of access: 10.03.2026).
5. Astana International Financial Centre. Representatives of the Administration of the President of Uzbekistan visited AIFC to study the experience of creating an international financial center [Electronic resource]. – 2026. – URL: https://aifc.kz/ru/novosti/predstaviteli-administraczii-prezidenta-uzbekistana-posetili-mfcza-s-czelyu-izucheniya-opyta-sozdaniya-mezhdunarodnogo-finansovogo-czentra/ (date of access: 10.03.2026).
6. The Astana Times. Building trust in Kazakhstan's fast-growing fintech ecosystem [Electronic resource]. – 2026. – URL: https://astanatimes.com/2026/01/building-trust-in-kazakhstans-fast-growing-fintech-ecosystem/ (date of access: 10.03.2026).
7. AIFC Tech Hub. The fintech startup landscape in Kazakhstan [Electronic resource]. – 2024. – URL: https://tech.aifc.kz/files/pages/2024/docs/12/the-fintech-startup-landscape-in-kazakhstan.pdf (date of access: 10.03.2026).